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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Thornbury C v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 22 Nov 2017)Match played between Cliff Hall (home) and Simon Strange (away).Match won by Cliff Hall. Result: 9-7,9-0,9-2. Starting level for Cliff Hall: 1,795, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Simon Strange: 1,405, level confidence: 56%. Cliff Hall to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Simon Strange. Cliff Hall won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cliff Hall played 76% better than Simon Strange in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cliff Hall actually played at a level of 2,107 and Simon Strange at a level of 1,197. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cliff Hall changes to +12% and Simon Strange changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cliff Hall becomes +6% and for Simon Strange becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Cliff Hall is +4.5% and for Simon Strange is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Strange is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cliff Hall: 83%, Simon Strange: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cliff Hall: 70%, Simon Strange: 64%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cliff Hall: 1,897, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Simon Strange: 1,336, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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