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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Wed 08 Nov 2017)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Nigel Carter (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 9-3,10-8,9-1. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,540, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Nigel Carter: 1,022, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Nigel Carter. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 55% better than Nigel Carter in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan actually played at a level of 1,562 and Nigel Carter at a level of 1,008. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +1.2% and Nigel Carter changes to -0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +1% and for Nigel Carter becomes -0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +0.7% and for Nigel Carter is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 64%, Nigel Carter: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 64%, Nigel Carter: 83%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,553, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Nigel Carter: 1,016, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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