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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Wed 08 Nov 2017)Match played between Rob Dewar (home) and Ian Doherty (away).Match won by Rob Dewar. Result: 9-1,9-4,9-1. Starting level for Rob Dewar: 1,480, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Ian Doherty: 1,031, level confidence: 50%. Rob Dewar to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Ian Doherty. Rob Dewar won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Dewar played 118% better than Ian Doherty in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Dewar actually played at a level of 1,824 and Ian Doherty at a level of 837. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Dewar changes to +17% and Ian Doherty changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Dewar becomes +8.3% and for Ian Doherty becomes -10.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Dewar is +6.2% and for Ian Doherty is -7.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Doherty is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Dewar: 75%, Ian Doherty: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Dewar: 61%, Ian Doherty: 57%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Dewar: 1,579, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Ian Doherty: 1,002, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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