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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Redwood Phoenix v University of Bath 3 (Wed 25 Oct 2017)Match played between Les Wharram (home) and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 2-9,3-9,6-9. Starting level for Les Wharram: 760, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,545, level confidence: 48%. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Les Wharram. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 57% better than Les Wharram in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,135 and 1,545 without affecting his level. In this case, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played at level 1,268 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan would normally have been playing at level 1,347 (based on typical behaviour), Les Wharram played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to 0% and Les Wharram changes to +3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes 0% and for Les Wharram becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is 0% and for Les Wharram is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 69%, Les Wharram: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 61%, Les Wharram: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Les Wharram: 781, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,540, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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