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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 3 v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 15 Nov 2017)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Les Wharram (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,553, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Les Wharram: 863, level confidence: 58%. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Les Wharram. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 134% better than Les Wharram in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan actually played at a level of 1,771 and Les Wharram at a level of 757. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 10.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +9.8% and Les Wharram changes to -10.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +5.3% and for Les Wharram becomes -6.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +4% and for Les Wharram is -4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 78%, Les Wharram: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 68%, Les Wharram: 67%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,601, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Les Wharram: 813, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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