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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bristol Sharks v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Tue 17 Oct 2017)Match played between Harry 'No Show' Brown (home) and David Fielding (away).Match won by David Fielding. Result: 10-8,0-9,3-9,3-9:6-9,0-9,3-9:0-9,3-9,3-9:7-9,7-9,2-9:4-9,0-9,1-9. Starting level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 955, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for David Fielding: 1,566, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. David Fielding to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Harry 'No Show' Brown. David Fielding won 75% of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Fielding played 34% better than Harry 'No Show' Brown in this match. As David Fielding has played below his allowed range at 1,306, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that David Fielding would normally have been playing at level 1,460 (based on typical behaviour), Harry 'No Show' Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 5.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Fielding changes to -1.3% and Harry 'No Show' Brown changes to +5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Fielding becomes -1.1% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown becomes +4.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Fielding is -0.8% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown is +3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Fielding: 86%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Fielding: 78%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 986, level confidence: 64%. Final level for David Fielding: 1,547, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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