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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 29 Nov 2017)Match played between Alicia Venables (home) and Edward 'The Baker' Selman (away).Match won by Alicia Venables. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Alicia Venables: 736, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 553, level confidence: 62%. Alicia Venables to win as she is currently playing 33% better than Edward 'The Baker' Selman. Alicia Venables won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alicia Venables played 379% better than Edward 'The Baker' Selman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alicia Venables actually played at a level of 1,396 and Edward 'The Baker' Selman at a level of 291. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 90% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 74% and 74% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alicia Venables changes to +70% and Edward 'The Baker' Selman changes to -74%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alicia Venables becomes +32.2% and for Edward 'The Baker' Selman becomes -34%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Alicia Venables is +24% and for Edward 'The Baker' Selman is -24%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alicia Venables is limited to +10% and Edward 'The Baker' Selman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alicia Venables: 81%, Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alicia Venables: 43%, Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 41%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alicia Venables: 808, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 520, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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