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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Weston Shankers (Wed 01 Nov 2017)Match played between David Fielding (home) and Dan Wride (away).Match won by David Fielding. Result: 9-4,4-9,9-3,10-8:9-3,9-3,2-9,9-0:9-4,9-5,8-10,9-2:9-6,6-9,10-8,2-9,2-9:9-5,4-9,7-9,3-9. Starting level for David Fielding: 1,547, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Dan Wride: 1,908, level confidence: 63%. Dan Wride to win as he is currently playing 23% better than David Fielding. David Fielding won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Fielding played 22% better than Dan Wride in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Fielding actually played at a level of 1,898 and Dan Wride at a level of 1,555. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Fielding changes to +17% and Dan Wride changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Fielding becomes +8.1% and for Dan Wride becomes -8.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Fielding is +6.1% and for Dan Wride is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dan Wride is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Fielding: 87%, Dan Wride: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Fielding: 71%, Dan Wride: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Fielding: 1,656, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Dan Wride: 1,820, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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