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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bristol Sharks v Whitchurch Imperial A (Tue 12 Dec 2017)Match played between Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (home) and Bill Hope (away).Match won by Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-5. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,437, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Bill Hope: 1,297, level confidence: 65%. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Bill Hope. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played 134% better than Bill Hope in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg actually played at a level of 2,088 and Bill Hope at a level of 892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to +40% and Bill Hope changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes +17.2% and for Bill Hope becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is +13% and for Bill Hope is -14%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is limited to +10% and Bill Hope is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 83%, Bill Hope: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 57%, Bill Hope: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,588, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Bill Hope: 1,251, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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