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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Redland Fireflies v Kingswood Originals (Thu 23 Nov 2017)Match played between David Langbridge (home) and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard (away).Match won by David Langbridge. Result: 9-4,9-0,9-0. Starting level for David Langbridge: 1,274, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 1,004, level confidence: 63%. David Langbridge to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Wayne 'Achilles' Chard. David Langbridge won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Langbridge played 164% better than Wayne 'Achilles' Chard in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Langbridge actually played at a level of 1,838 and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard at a level of 696. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Langbridge changes to +38% and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard changes to -31%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Langbridge becomes +17.4% and for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Langbridge is +13% and for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Langbridge is limited to +10% and Wayne 'Achilles' Chard is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Langbridge: 73%, Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Langbridge: 51%, Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 55%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Langbridge: 1,404, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Wayne 'Achilles' Chard: 948, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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