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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Redland Fireflies v Kingswood Originals (Thu 23 Nov 2017)Match played between Tim O'Leary (home) and Tim Clubb (away).Match won by Tim Clubb. Result: 7-9,4-9,7-9. Starting level for Tim O'Leary: 1,085, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Tim Clubb: 1,026, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Tim O'Leary to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Tim Clubb. Tim Clubb won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Clubb played 34% better than Tim O'Leary in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Clubb actually played at a level of 1,222 and Tim O'Leary at a level of 911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Clubb changes to +19% and Tim O'Leary changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Clubb becomes +10.4% and for Tim O'Leary becomes -10%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Tim Clubb is +7.8% and for Tim O'Leary is -7.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tim O'Leary is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Clubb: 89%, Tim O'Leary: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Clubb: 75%, Tim O'Leary: 76%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim O'Leary: 1,044, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Tim Clubb: 1,099, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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