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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 5 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 29 Nov 2017)Match played between Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell (home) and Alex Vacher (away).Match won by Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell. Result: 9-0,9-2,9-1. Starting level for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 1,224, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Alex Vacher: 763, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Alex Vacher. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell played 209% better than Alex Vacher in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell actually played at a level of 1,699 and Alex Vacher at a level of 550. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell changes to +30% and Alex Vacher changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell becomes +14.2% and for Alex Vacher becomes -10%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell is +10.6% and for Alex Vacher is -7.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell is limited to +10% and Alex Vacher is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 69%, Alex Vacher: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 50%, Alex Vacher: 62%. A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris 'Short Shorts' Mitchell: 1,378, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Alex Vacher: 736, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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