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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: Weston Donkeys v Workout Harbourside (Wed 01 Nov 2017)Match played between David Glimstead (home) and Jeff Heward (away).Match won by David Glimstead. Result: 9-5,6-9,5-9,9-6,9-5. Starting level for David Glimstead: 693, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Jeff Heward: 1,078, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Jeff Heward to win as he is currently playing 56% better than David Glimstead. David Glimstead won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Glimstead played 9% better than Jeff Heward in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Glimstead actually played at a level of 902 and Jeff Heward at a level of 828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Glimstead changes to +22% and Jeff Heward changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Glimstead becomes +12.3% and for Jeff Heward becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Glimstead is +9.2% and for Jeff Heward is -9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jeff Heward is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Glimstead: 87%, Jeff Heward: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Glimstead: 67%, Jeff Heward: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Glimstead: 756, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Jeff Heward: 1,031, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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