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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 5 v Kingsdown Stallions (Wed 06 Dec 2017)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet (away).Match won by Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Result: 9-1,9-2,9-0. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,069, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 1,232, level confidence: 68%. Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played 209% better than Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex 'Anger Management' Snook actually played at a level of 2,017 and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet at a level of 653. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 89% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to +80% and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet changes to -81%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes +35.2% and for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet becomes -33%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is +26% and for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet is -23%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is limited to +10% and Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 82%, Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 44%, Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 44%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,140, level confidence: 44%. Final level for Josh ‘Racing Snake’ Sweet: 1,178, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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