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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v Weston (Thu 19 Oct 2017)Match played between Jacqui Clinch (home) and Rosa Venables (away).Match won by Jacqui Clinch. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-4. Starting level for Jacqui Clinch: 369, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Rosa Venables: 271, level confidence: 54%. Jacqui Clinch to win as she is currently playing 36% better than Rosa Venables. Jacqui Clinch won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jacqui Clinch played 118% better than Rosa Venables in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jacqui Clinch actually played at a level of 467 and Rosa Venables at a level of 214. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jacqui Clinch changes to +21% and Rosa Venables changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jacqui Clinch becomes +11.5% and for Rosa Venables becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jacqui Clinch is +8.6% and for Rosa Venables is -9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rosa Venables is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jacqui Clinch: 76%, Rosa Venables: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jacqui Clinch: 60%, Rosa Venables: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jacqui Clinch: 389, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Rosa Venables: 261, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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