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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Weston (Thu 09 Nov 2017)Match played between Pippa Green (home) and Alicia Venables (away).Match won by Pippa Green. Result: 9-7,9-0,9-2:9-7,9-3,9-3:9-2,9-0,9-1:8-10,7-9,9-1,10-8,9-6:?-?. Starting level for Pippa Green: 1,648, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Alicia Venables: 666, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Pippa Green to win as she is currently playing 147% better than Alicia Venables. Pippa Green won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pippa Green played 76% better than Alicia Venables in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Pippa Green was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,045 and 1,648 without affecting her level. In this case, Pippa Green played at level 1,256 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pippa Green would normally have been playing at level 1,346 (based on typical behaviour), Alicia Venables played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pippa Green changes to 0% and Alicia Venables changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pippa Green becomes 0% and for Alicia Venables becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Pippa Green is 0% and for Alicia Venables is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pippa Green: 71%, Alicia Venables: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pippa Green: 60%, Alicia Venables: 76%. A final adjustment of +2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Pippa Green: 1,706, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Alicia Venables: 685, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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