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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bath Ladies A v University of Bath Ladies B (Thu 30 Nov 2017)Match played between Alice Richards (home) and Annabel Biggs (away).Match won by Alice Richards. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-1:9-0,9-1,9-0:9-6,9-2,9-3:9-1,2-9,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Alice Richards: 755, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Annabel Biggs: 119, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Alice Richards to win as she is currently playing 534% better than Annabel Biggs. Alice Richards won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alice Richards played 209% better than Annabel Biggs in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alice Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 168 and 755 without affecting her level. In this case, Alice Richards played at level 377 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alice Richards would normally have been playing at level 387 (based on typical behaviour), Annabel Biggs played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alice Richards changes to 0% and Annabel Biggs changes to +1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alice Richards becomes 0% and for Annabel Biggs becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Alice Richards is 0% and for Annabel Biggs is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alice Richards: 86%, Annabel Biggs: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alice Richards: 60%, Annabel Biggs: 58%. A final adjustment of -1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alice Richards: 746, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Annabel Biggs: 118, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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