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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: David Lloyd A v University of Bath Ladies B (Thu 02 Nov 2017)Match played between Sue Lock (home) and Charlotte Hewitt (away).Match won by Sue Lock. Result: 9-3,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Sue Lock: 286, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Charlotte Hewitt: 49, level confidence: 29%. Sue Lock to win as she is currently playing 484% better than Charlotte Hewitt. Sue Lock won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sue Lock played 209% better than Charlotte Hewitt in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sue Lock was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 70 and 286 without affecting her level. In this case, Sue Lock played at level 152 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sue Lock would normally have been playing at level 153 (based on typical behaviour), Charlotte Hewitt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sue Lock changes to 0% and Charlotte Hewitt changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sue Lock becomes 0% and for Charlotte Hewitt becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Sue Lock is 0% and for Charlotte Hewitt is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sue Lock: 75%, Charlotte Hewitt: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sue Lock: 55%, Charlotte Hewitt: 39%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sue Lock: 287, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Charlotte Hewitt: 49, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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