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Login: | Explaining level changesAllan Milnes v David Glimstead (Wed 13 Sep 2017)Match won by David Glimstead. Result: 2-9,0-9,1-9.Starting level for Allan Milnes: 831, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for David Glimstead: 634, level confidence: 60%. Allan Milnes to win as he is currently playing 31% better than David Glimstead. David Glimstead won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Glimstead played 209% better than Allan Milnes in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Glimstead actually played at a level of 1,276 and Allan Milnes at a level of 413. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 101% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 84% and 84% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Glimstead changes to +84% and Allan Milnes changes to -74%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Glimstead becomes +37.7% and for Allan Milnes becomes -34%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Weston Club Boxes' so the adjustment for David Glimstead is +19% and for Allan Milnes is -14%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Glimstead is limited to +10% and Allan Milnes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Glimstead: 78%, Allan Milnes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Glimstead: 39%, Allan Milnes: 40%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Allan Milnes: 791, level confidence: 40%. Final level for David Glimstead: 705, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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