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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v Thornbury A (Wed 21 Feb 2018)Match played between Andy Marsh (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 5-11,5-11,5-11. Starting level for Andy Marsh: 6,868, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 8,685, level confidence: 62%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Andy Marsh. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 120% better than Andy Marsh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 11,455 and Andy Marsh at a level of 5,207. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +28% and Andy Marsh changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +7.4% and for Andy Marsh becomes -6.4%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Marsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +4.9% and for Andy Marsh is -4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 79%, Andy Marsh: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 60%, Andy Marsh: 66%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Marsh: 6,694, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 9,174, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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