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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 21 Feb 2018)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Dave Allman (away).Match won by Dave Allman. Result: 11-8,8-11,8-11,9-11. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,328, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Dave Allman: 6,946, level confidence: 56%. Dave Allman to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Keith Sanzo. Dave Allman won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Allman played 21% better than Keith Sanzo in this match. As Dave Allman has played below his allowed range at 6,529, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Dave Allman would normally have been playing at level 6,788 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Sanzo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Allman changes to -0.9% and Keith Sanzo changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Allman becomes -0.5% and for Keith Sanzo becomes +1%. Given Dave Allman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dave Allman is -0.3% and for Keith Sanzo is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Allman: 75%, Keith Sanzo: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Allman: 72%, Keith Sanzo: 82%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,365, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Dave Allman: 6,948, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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