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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 17 Jan 2018)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 9-11,5-11,9-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,617, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 7,686, level confidence: 69%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Andy Ewings. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 47% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 7,974 and Andy Ewings at a level of 5,414. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +2.5% and Andy Ewings changes to -3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +1.3% and for Andy Ewings becomes -1.8%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +0.9% and for Andy Ewings is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 83%, Andy Ewings: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 80%, Andy Ewings: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,559, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 7,847, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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