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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 21 Feb 2018)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Roshan Bharos (away).Match won by Roshan Bharos. Result: 5-11,9-11,6-11:7-11,11-7,11-7,8-11,11-13:11-3,11-3,11-8:11-9,11-6,5-11,11-6:5-11,6-11,3-11. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 10,809, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 14,159, level confidence: 36%. Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Theis Houlberg. Roshan Bharos won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Bharos played 65% better than Theis Houlberg in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roshan Bharos actually played at a level of 15,891 and Theis Houlberg at a level of 9,631. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.6% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos changes to +10.6% and Theis Houlberg changes to -6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos becomes +3.1% and for Theis Houlberg becomes -2.2%. Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Roshan Bharos is +1.8% and for Theis Houlberg is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Bharos: 60%, Theis Houlberg: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Bharos: 53%, Theis Houlberg: 69%. A final adjustment of +3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 10,598, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Roshan Bharos: 15,387, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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