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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 24 Jan 2018)Match played between Theis Houlberg (home) and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (away).Match won by Theis Houlberg. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-9:6-11,11-9,8-11,8-11:7-11,7-11,7-11:5-11,6-11,11-8,9-11:11-6,11-7,8-11,11-8. Starting level for Theis Houlberg: 8,395, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 8,501, level confidence: 64%. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Theis Houlberg. Theis Houlberg won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Theis Houlberg played 36% better than Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Theis Houlberg actually played at a level of 9,859 and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe at a level of 7,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg changes to +17% and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Theis Houlberg becomes +5% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -4.6%. Given Theis Houlberg's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Theis Houlberg is +3.4% and for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Theis Houlberg: 76%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Theis Houlberg: 65%, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 68%. A final adjustment of +8.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Theis Houlberg: 10,142, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 8,317, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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