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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Mar 2018)Match played between Sam Davidson (home) and Roshan Bharos (away).Match won by Roshan Bharos. Result: 7-11,7-11,4-11:12-10,11-3,11-7:11-4,4-11,11-9,11-8:11-4,11-9,13-11:11-3,6-11,11-7,11-9. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 9,548, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 15,387, level confidence: 49%. Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Sam Davidson. Roshan Bharos won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Bharos played 83% better than Sam Davidson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roshan Bharos actually played at a level of 16,412 and Sam Davidson at a level of 8,952. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 5.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos changes to +5.2% and Sam Davidson changes to -3.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos becomes +1.9% and for Sam Davidson becomes -1.5%. Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change. Given Sam Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Roshan Bharos is +1.1% and for Sam Davidson is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Bharos: 70%, Sam Davidson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Bharos: 66%, Sam Davidson: 85%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Davidson: 9,392, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Roshan Bharos: 15,304, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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