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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Mar 2018)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Will Kingwell (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-7. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 8,514, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 5,149, level confidence: 48%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Will Kingwell. Jeremy Harris won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 70% better than Will Kingwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Harris actually played at a level of 8,633 and Will Kingwell at a level of 5,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to +0.7% and Will Kingwell changes to -1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes +0.4% and for Will Kingwell becomes -0.6%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is 0% and for Will Kingwell is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 88%, Will Kingwell: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 86%, Will Kingwell: 68%. A final adjustment of +4.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 9,471, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Will Kingwell: 5,073, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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