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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Mar 2018)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 11-4,4-11,11-9,11-8. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 9,308, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,350, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Andy Ewings. Callum Davidson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 22% better than Andy Ewings in this match. As Callum Davidson has played below his allowed range at 7,073, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Callum Davidson would normally have been playing at level 8,541 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 10.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to -6.3% and Andy Ewings changes to +7.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes -2.4% and for Andy Ewings becomes +2.9%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is -1.5% and for Andy Ewings is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 75%, Andy Ewings: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 63%, Andy Ewings: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 9,119, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,457, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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