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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 07 Mar 2018)Match played between Ryan Wilson (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Ryan Wilson. Result: 11-4,11-9,13-11. Starting level for Ryan Wilson: 6,136, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 4,376, level confidence: 37%. Ryan Wilson to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Ryan Wilson won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Wilson played 49% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Wilson actually played at a level of 6,322 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 4,247. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Wilson changes to +1.1% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Wilson becomes +0.6% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -1.6%. Given Ryan Wilson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Ryan Wilson is +0.5% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Wilson: 91%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Wilson: 88%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 59%. A final adjustment of -2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ryan Wilson: 6,299, level confidence: 88%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 4,031, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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