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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 31 Jan 2018)Match played between Barney Elworthy (home) and Sam Price (away).Match won by Barney Elworthy. Result: 11-0,11-3,11-4. Starting level for Barney Elworthy: 6,350, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Sam Price: 4,172, level confidence: 65%. Barney Elworthy to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Sam Price. Barney Elworthy won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Elworthy played 371% better than Sam Price in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barney Elworthy actually played at a level of 11,175 and Sam Price at a level of 2,371. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 76% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 58% and 58% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy changes to +58% and Sam Price changes to -57%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy becomes +14.5% and for Sam Price becomes -16%. Given Barney Elworthy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Barney Elworthy is +10.3% and for Sam Price is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Barney Elworthy is limited to +9.2% and Sam Price is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Elworthy: 80%, Sam Price: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Elworthy: 46%, Sam Price: 46%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Elworthy: 6,992, level confidence: 46%. Final level for Sam Price: 3,919, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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