|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Thornbury A (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Richard King (home) and Sam Davidson (away).Match won by Sam Davidson. Result: 11-8,3-11,9-11,5-11:11-9,2-11,3-11,11-6,13-11:1-11,8-11,9-11:15-13,4-11,11-9,12-10:?-?. Starting level for Richard King: 6,719, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 9,392, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Sam Davidson to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Richard King. Sam Davidson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Davidson played 32% better than Richard King in this match. In this case, Sam Davidson played at level 8,969 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sam Davidson would normally have been playing at level 9,066 (based on typical behaviour), Richard King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Davidson changes to 0% and Richard King changes to +0.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Davidson becomes 0% and for Richard King becomes +0.5%. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Sam Davidson is 0% and for Richard King is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Davidson: 85%, Richard King: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Davidson: 83%, Richard King: 80%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 6,738, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Sam Davidson: 9,412, level confidence: 83%. Notes
|