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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 07 Feb 2018)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 8-11,6-11,9-11:7-11,6-11,11-8,10-12:8-11,6-11,10-12:11-13,9-11,11-6,8-11:11-8,12-10,7-11,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,205, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 8,698, level confidence: 63%. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Andy Ewings. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 47% better than Andy Ewings in this match. In this case, Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played at level 7,865 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe would normally have been playing at level 8,069 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to 0% and Andy Ewings changes to +2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes 0% and for Andy Ewings becomes +1.2%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is 0% and for Andy Ewings is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 80%, Andy Ewings: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 75%, Andy Ewings: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,231, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 8,684, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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