|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 07 Feb 2018)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Tom Elgood (away).Match won by Tom Elgood. Result: 7-11,6-11,11-8,10-12. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,083, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Tom Elgood: 7,296, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Tom Elgood to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Tom Elgood won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Elgood played 25% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Elgood actually played at a level of 7,434 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 5,970. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Elgood changes to 0% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Elgood becomes +0.1% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -1%. Given Tom Elgood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Tom Elgood is 0% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Elgood: 92%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Elgood: 90%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 31%. A final adjustment of -17.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 4,454, level confidence: 31%. Final level for Tom Elgood: 7,197, level confidence: 90%. Notes
|