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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Lansdown 1 (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (home) and Andy Ewings (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 5-11,11-6,8-11,11-9,11-9:8-11,11-0,3-11,11-9,8-11:13-11,11-8,11-3:8-11,11-8,9-11,11-7,11-8:?-?. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 9,525, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,457, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Andy Ewings. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 8% better than Andy Ewings in this match. As Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe has played below his allowed range at 6,778, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe would normally have been playing at level 8,732 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Ewings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -12% and Andy Ewings changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -3.6% and for Andy Ewings becomes +5.2%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -2.3% and for Andy Ewings is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 85%, Andy Ewings: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 67%, Andy Ewings: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 9,413, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,664, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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