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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Lansdown 1 (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Barney Elworthy (home) and Tim Jones (away).Match won by Barney Elworthy. Result: 13-11,11-8,11-3. Starting level for Barney Elworthy: 6,674, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Tim Jones: 3,386, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Barney Elworthy to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Tim Jones. Barney Elworthy won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Elworthy played 58% better than Tim Jones in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Barney Elworthy was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,023 and 6,674 without affecting his level. In this case, Barney Elworthy played at level 5,605 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Barney Elworthy would normally have been playing at level 5,882 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy changes to 0% and Tim Jones changes to +3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy becomes 0% and for Tim Jones becomes +2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Barney Elworthy is 0% and for Tim Jones is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Elworthy: 83%, Tim Jones: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Elworthy: 74%, Tim Jones: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Elworthy: 6,674, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Tim Jones: 3,423, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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