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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 28 Feb 2018)Match played between Arnaud Masset (home) and Conall Platts (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-5. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 5,170, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Conall Platts: 1,980, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 161% better than Conall Platts. Arnaud Masset won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 62% better than Conall Platts in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Arnaud Masset was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,132 and 5,170 without affecting his level. In this case, Arnaud Masset played at level 3,642 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arnaud Masset would normally have been playing at level 4,138 (based on typical behaviour), Conall Platts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to 0% and Conall Platts changes to +6.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes 0% and for Conall Platts becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is 0% and for Conall Platts is +2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 78%, Conall Platts: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 61%, Conall Platts: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 5,130, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Conall Platts: 2,054, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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