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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside (Thu 15 Feb 2018)Match played between Cameron Haddow (home) and Ryan Davies (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-4. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 6,914, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Ryan Davies: 3,449, level confidence: 60%. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Ryan Davies. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 56% better than Ryan Davies in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Haddow was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,125 and 6,914 without affecting his level. In this case, Cameron Haddow played at level 5,715 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cameron Haddow would normally have been playing at level 6,052 (based on typical behaviour), Ryan Davies played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to 0% and Ryan Davies changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes 0% and for Ryan Davies becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is 0% and for Ryan Davies is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 77%, Ryan Davies: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 68%, Ryan Davies: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 6,907, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Ryan Davies: 3,505, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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