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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: David Lloyd Lovecars v Redland B (Wed 31 Jan 2018)Match played between Ian Stuart (home) and Ben Dillistone (away).Match won by Ian Stuart. Result: 9-1,9-4,9-0. Starting level for Ian Stuart: 3,127, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 2,233, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Ian Stuart to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Ben Dillistone. Ian Stuart won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Stuart played 134% better than Ben Dillistone in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Stuart actually played at a level of 4,042 and Ben Dillistone at a level of 1,727. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Stuart changes to +24% and Ben Dillistone changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Stuart becomes +8.6% and for Ben Dillistone becomes -9.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Ian Stuart is +6.4% and for Ben Dillistone is -6.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Dillistone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Stuart: 85%, Ben Dillistone: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Stuart: 65%, Ben Dillistone: 67%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Stuart: 3,447, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 2,120, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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