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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 2 v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 10 Jan 2018)Match played between Murray Kenneth (home) and John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens (away).Match won by Murray Kenneth. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Murray Kenneth: 2,100, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens: 1,347, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Murray Kenneth to win as he is currently playing 56% better than John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens. Murray Kenneth won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Murray Kenneth played 278% better than John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Murray Kenneth actually played at a level of 3,270 and John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens at a level of 865. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Murray Kenneth changes to +43% and John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Murray Kenneth becomes +15.6% and for John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Murray Kenneth is +12% and for John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens is -8.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Murray Kenneth is limited to +10% and John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Murray Kenneth: 75%, John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Murray Kenneth: 48%, John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens: 58%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Murray Kenneth: 2,344, level confidence: 48%. Final level for John ‘Mystic’ Gibbens: 1,295, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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