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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v Redland Z (Wed 14 Feb 2018)Match played between Phil Reddaway (home) and David Evans (away).Match won by Phil Reddaway. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-0:9-6,9-1,6-9,9-1:9-4,9-6,9-2:9-6,10-8,4-9,9-6:9-0,7-9,9-3,4-9,7-9. Starting level for Phil Reddaway: 2,998, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for David Evans: 2,175, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Phil Reddaway to win as he is currently playing 38% better than David Evans. Phil Reddaway won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Reddaway played 379% better than David Evans in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Reddaway actually played at a level of 5,589 and David Evans at a level of 1,167. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 86% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 70% and 70% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Reddaway changes to +66% and David Evans changes to -70%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Reddaway becomes +19.9% and for David Evans becomes -23%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Phil Reddaway is +15% and for David Evans is -17%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Phil Reddaway is limited to +10% and David Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Reddaway: 87%, David Evans: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Reddaway: 47%, David Evans: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Phil Reddaway: 3,291, level confidence: 47%. Final level for David Evans: 2,067, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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