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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v Redland Z (Wed 14 Feb 2018)Match played between Miles Jeanneret (home) and Tim Hare (away).Match won by Tim Hare. Result: 9-0,7-9,9-3,4-9,7-9. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,664, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Tim Hare: 1,574, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Tim Hare. Tim Hare won 60% of the games and 45% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Hare played 5% better than Miles Jeanneret in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Hare actually played at a level of 2,099 and Miles Jeanneret at a level of 1,998. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Hare changes to +25% and Miles Jeanneret changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Hare becomes +11% and for Miles Jeanneret becomes -8.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Tim Hare is +8.3% and for Miles Jeanneret is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Miles Jeanneret is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Hare: 84%, Miles Jeanneret: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Hare: 63%, Miles Jeanneret: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,578, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Tim Hare: 1,701, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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