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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bristol Ballers (Tue 30 Jan 2018)Match played between Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (home) and Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (away).Match won by Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Result: 2-9,4-9,0-9. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,142, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 1,804, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played 118% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary actually played at a level of 2,119 and Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran at a level of 972. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +9% and Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +4.7% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +3.5% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 89%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 75%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 61%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,108, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 1,880, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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