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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Ballers v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 15 Feb 2018)Match played between James ‘The Tinman’ Lee (home) and George 'Ez' Allen (away).Match won by George 'Ez' Allen. Result: 9-7,5-9,5-9,5-9. Starting level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 1,859, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,909, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. George 'Ez' Allen to win as he is currently playing 56% better than James ‘The Tinman’ Lee. George 'Ez' Allen won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Ez' Allen played 24% better than James ‘The Tinman’ Lee in this match. As George 'Ez' Allen has played below his allowed range at 2,421, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that George 'Ez' Allen would normally have been playing at level 2,743 (based on typical behaviour), James ‘The Tinman’ Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 7.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen changes to -3.7% and James ‘The Tinman’ Lee changes to +7.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen becomes -2.3% and for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee becomes +4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for George 'Ez' Allen is -1.7% and for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Ez' Allen: 86%, James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Ez' Allen: 77%, James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 1,912, level confidence: 72%. Final level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,849, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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