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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd B v University of Bath 2 (Wed 04 Apr 2018)Match played between Kirk Woodward (home) and Miles Jeanneret (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 7-9,4-9,0-9. Starting level for Kirk Woodward: 2,513, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,627, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Kirk Woodward. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 57% better than Kirk Woodward in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jeanneret actually played at a level of 3,220 and Kirk Woodward at a level of 2,051. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to +18% and Kirk Woodward changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes +7.1% and for Kirk Woodward becomes -8.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is +5.3% and for Kirk Woodward is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kirk Woodward is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 89%, Kirk Woodward: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 73%, Kirk Woodward: 66%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kirk Woodward: 2,394, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,767, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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