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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 24 Jan 2018)Match played between Arnaud Masset (home) and George ‘V’ Piggot (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 9-2,10-8,9-7:9-3,9-2,10-8:0-9,5-9,1-9:0-9,0-9,0-9:0-9,0-9,0-9. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 4,396, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for George ‘V’ Piggot: 2,923, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 50% better than George ‘V’ Piggot. Arnaud Masset won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 38% better than George ‘V’ Piggot in this match. In this case, Arnaud Masset played at level 4,101 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arnaud Masset would normally have been playing at level 4,182 (based on typical behaviour), George ‘V’ Piggot played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to 0% and George ‘V’ Piggot changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes 0% and for George ‘V’ Piggot becomes +1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is 0% and for George ‘V’ Piggot is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 87%, George ‘V’ Piggot: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 83%, George ‘V’ Piggot: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 4,375, level confidence: 83%. Final level for George ‘V’ Piggot: 2,936, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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