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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Ballers v University of Bath 2 (Thu 15 Mar 2018)Match played between Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (home) and Ben Bradly (away).Match won by Ben Bradly. Result: 4-9,9-1,1-9,9-8,2-9. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 2,079, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Ben Bradly: 3,015, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Ben Bradly to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Ben Bradly won 60% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Bradly played 13% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary in this match. As Ben Bradly has played below his allowed range at 2,534, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Bradly would normally have been playing at level 2,890 (based on typical behaviour), Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Bradly changes to -4.7% and Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +9.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Bradly becomes -2.6% and for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Ben Bradly is -1.9% and for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Bradly: 91%, Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Bradly: 80%, Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 2,142, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Ben Bradly: 2,944, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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