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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 2 v Redland Z (Wed 28 Feb 2018)Match played between Sam Smith (home) and David Evans (away).Match won by Sam Smith. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Sam Smith: 3,109, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for David Evans: 2,081, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Sam Smith to win as he is currently playing 49% better than David Evans. Sam Smith won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Smith played 379% better than David Evans in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Smith actually played at a level of 5,567 and David Evans at a level of 1,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 79% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 61% and 61% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Smith changes to +59% and David Evans changes to -61%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Smith becomes +18.1% and for David Evans becomes -21%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Sam Smith is +14% and for David Evans is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam Smith is limited to +10% and David Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Smith: 87%, David Evans: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Smith: 49%, David Evans: 48%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Smith: 3,417, level confidence: 49%. Final level for David Evans: 1,982, level confidence: 48%. Notes
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