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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 2 v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Martin Sadler (home) and Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown (away).Match won by Martin Sadler. Result: 9-0,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Martin Sadler: 2,633, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 1,890, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Martin Sadler to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown. Martin Sadler won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Sadler played 164% better than Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Sadler actually played at a level of 3,625 and Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown at a level of 1,373. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Sadler changes to +29% and Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown changes to -31%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Sadler becomes +10.5% and for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Martin Sadler is +7.9% and for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown is -9.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Sadler: 90%, Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Sadler: 65%, Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 63%. A final adjustment of +2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Martin Sadler: 2,957, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 1,816, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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