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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 07 Feb 2018)Match played between Patrick Stewart (home) and Harry 'No Show' Brown (away).Match won by Patrick Stewart. Result: 9-5,9-1,9-4. Starting level for Patrick Stewart: 3,497, level confidence: 31%. Starting level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 1,096, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Patrick Stewart to win as he is currently playing 219% better than Harry 'No Show' Brown. Patrick Stewart won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Stewart played 67% better than Harry 'No Show' Brown in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Stewart was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,751 and 3,497 without affecting his level. In this case, Patrick Stewart played at level 2,169 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Stewart would normally have been playing at level 2,571 (based on typical behaviour), Harry 'No Show' Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Stewart changes to 0% and Harry 'No Show' Brown changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Stewart becomes 0% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Patrick Stewart is 0% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Stewart: 56%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Stewart: 40%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 62%. A final adjustment of -1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick Stewart: 3,417, level confidence: 40%. Final level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 1,127, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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