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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 07 Feb 2018)Match played between Ben Bradly (home) and Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (away).Match won by Ben Bradly. Result: 9-1,9-5,9-1. Starting level for Ben Bradly: 2,656, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,108, level confidence: 69%. Ben Bradly to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Ben Bradly won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Bradly played 97% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Bradly was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,728 and 2,656 without affecting his level. In this case, Ben Bradly played at level 2,188 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Bradly changes to 0% and Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Bradly becomes 0% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Ben Bradly is 0% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Bradly: 69%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Bradly: 62%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Bradly: 2,655, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,105, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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