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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 2 (Tue 13 Mar 2018)Match played between George 'Ez' Allen (home) and Arnaud Masset (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 1-9,7-9,3-9:3-9,6-9,9-8,6-9:9-7,5-9,3-9,8-10:7-9,7-9,2-9:7-9,3-9,3-9. Starting level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,793, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 5,102, level confidence: 53%. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 83% better than George 'Ez' Allen. Arnaud Masset won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 57% better than George 'Ez' Allen in this match. In this case, Arnaud Masset played at level 4,498 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arnaud Masset would normally have been playing at level 4,614 (based on typical behaviour), George 'Ez' Allen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to 0% and George 'Ez' Allen changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes 0% and for George 'Ez' Allen becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is 0% and for George 'Ez' Allen is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 73%, George 'Ez' Allen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 68%, George 'Ez' Allen: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George 'Ez' Allen: 2,806, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 5,096, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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